ANAHEIM, Calif. – This past offseason, the Astros’ air of invincibility and inevitability seemed to be fading.
But it wasn’t until Saturday night, in the 161st game of a 2025 season that had seen them overcome a deluge of injuries before finally succumbing down the stretch, when the book officially closed on the golden era of Houston baseball.
They had weathered the departures of foundational pieces throughout their dynastic run, which saw them make the playoffs eight straight seasons before this year. During that time, they won the AL West seven times, made the AL Championship series seven times and won two World Series titles.
But never before during their sustained stretch of excellence had they endured the kind of fundamental and flabbergasting roster shake-up that occurred this offseason, when they traded Kyle Tucker, now a four-time All-Star, in his prime and refused to pay what was required to keep Alex Bregman, their galvanizing clubhouse leader.
Nonetheless, lacking their usual star power and with their roster depleted, they still look destined for their ninth straight trip to the postseason for much of the year. The Astros held a seven-game advantage in the division in July and a four-game lead as recently as Sept. 3 before watching it disintegrate.
The Astros’ season will finish earlier than expected. (Photo by John Cordes/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Eventually, a plethora of untimely absences, a meager offense and a rotation that lacked the requisite depth ran out of steam down the stretch. They lost 40 times over their last 70 games entering Saturday, when promising rookie Zach Cole lifted a two-run home run to center field at Angel Stadium to give the Astros a 2-0 lead in the second inning.
By then, it didn’t matter.
Moments prior, more than 2,000 miles away, fellow rookie C.J. Kayfus stepped to the plate with the bases loaded in the ninth inning in Cleveland and wore a 94.9 mph fastball from Rangers reliever Robert Garcia, who had not hit a batter previously all year. With that, a Guardians team that had won 18 times in a 22-game stretch secured the AL’s final wild-card spot.
And the Astros, for the first time since 2016, were eliminated from postseason contention.
“I want to apologize to the fans in Houston for falling short,” said Carlos Correa, a franchise icon who returned to the club at the trade deadline. “It’s not what they’re accustomed to. They’re used to watching playoff baseball, and they look forward to that every single year. It’s a beautiful time of the year in Houston, and we were not able to accomplish that this year. But we promise our fans in Houston that this offseason is going to be one of a lot of hard work. We’re all going to get better, and next year will be one to remember.”
At the time Correa arrived from Minnesota, the Astros were still in the AL West’s driver’s seat despite a litany of setbacks.
They watched Ronel Blanco, Spencer Arrighetti and Hayden Wesneski, three members of the club’s Opening Day rotation, go down to injury. Blanco and Wesneski were both lost for the year in May. That month, the Astros lost their top slugger, too. Three-time All-Star Yordan Alvarez was hitting considerably below league average for 29 games when a hand injury forced him to the injured list on May 5.
With their rotation decimated and their most feared hitter sidelined, the Astros still managed to go 39-21 over a 60-game stretch.
“Some other teams would have been out a long time ago,” said manager Joe Espada.
With Alvarez down, Tucker and Bregman gone and Jose Altuve no longer the force he once was, others stepped up.
Jeremy Peña, realizing the potential that always seemed possible after taking over for Correa at shortstop in 2022, produced a career year in his first career All-Star campaign. Despite injuries limiting him to 125 games, his fewest total as a big-leaguer, he’ll finish the season worth more than five wins above replacement, making him one of the 15 most valuable position players in MLB. No other Astros position player ranks in the top 90 in fWAR, a result of both the talent lost and injuries sustained.
Jeremy Peña’s first All-Star campaign wasn’t enough for the Astros (Photo by Kenneth Richmond/Getty Images)
Isaac Paredes, acquired in the Tucker deal, made the departure of Bregman more bearable. Known for his ability to pull the ball in the air, Paredes appeared to be a perfect fit to take advantage of Houston’s Crawford Boxes. The match played out to plan; Paredes was named an All-Star for the second straight season and trails only Peña for the best OPS on the team. But a hamstring injury forced him out for most of the second half as the season spiraled.
In the first half, another addition from the Tucker trade, 22-year-old rookie Cam Smith, handled a surprising move to right field with aplomb. Just last year, Smith was manning third base at Florida State. He had never played the outfield professionally before this season. In early July, when the Astros went into Dodger Stadium and pulverized the Dodgers, outscoring the reigning champions 29-6 over a three-game sweep, Smith’s OPS for the year climbed over .800. It would not remain there.
But to that point, at least, the Astros were piling wins and doing damage — even without Alvarez and, later, Peña, who fractured a rib in late June. They had 15 players on the injured list when they swept the Dodgers and moved to 55-35 on the year, a far better mark through 90 games than they had either of the previous two years.
At the time, FanGraphs gave them an 85.9% chance to win the division and a 98.3% chance to make the playoffs. Espada told me after that series that players come and go in Houston, but he felt the culture of winning persisted.
“It’s something that spreads throughout the organization,” Espada said back in July. “For us to win, we’ve got to continue to develop not only good players but winning players. That comes with mindset, that comes with preparation, that comes with toughness.”
Altuve is a lasting example. At 35 years old, he has played more games this year than any player on the roster, despite no longer looking like a nine-time All-Star. In the final week of the season, a lingering foot issue nagged at him. He will need to consult with doctors in the offseason to see what they recommend for the injury. But he played through the pain, believing his team needed him.
“I told this team that I’m really proud of them because we have gone through a lot,” Espada said after his team was eliminated Saturday. “We got guys that have no business being on the field right now — banged-up, injury-wise — but they’re playing through pain and through injuries just because they want it for our city, they want it for their teammates.”
A team to beat ‘on paper’
The Major League season does not care for narratives. It can be grueling and unforgiving. And over 162 games, the blemishes can only be masked for so long. The scourge of Astros injuries was unrelenting and, ultimately, insurmountable.
Paredes strained his hamstring on July 20 and missed the next two months. All-Star closer Josh Hader hasn’t pitched since Aug. 8 due to a shoulder injury. Alvarez returned on Aug. 26 and looked more like himself, registering an OPS over 1.000 for 19 games, before spraining his ankle and missing the remainder of the season.
“We have a great team,” Correa said. “When we’re healthy, on paper, we’re the team to beat. That’s how I feel going into next year. We’ve got to get our guys healthy.”
If the Astros remain healthy next season, they can be back among the postseason contenders. (Photo by Ishika Samant/Getty Images)
There were signs of the spiral before the break. The Astros ended the first half losing five of six games, including a sweep at the hands of the Guardians team that would eventually prevent them from securing a final playoff spot. They tallied a losing record in July but still had a five-game lead in the division at the time.
Perhaps attempting to recapture the magic of seasons past, the Astros re-acquired Correa, a franchise icon, at the trade deadline. He performed well back in familiar surroundings, but he could not halt the downtrend.
The Astros tallied a losing record again in August and will do the same in September. Since sweeping the Dodgers in Los Angeles, they have scored the fourth-fewest runs and registered the fifth-worst OPS in MLB.
Smith, who looked so promising through the first half, has the lowest OPS and wRC+ among all MLB hitters with at least 150 plate appearances since the break. Jesús Sánchez, the Astros’ other big deadline pickup, has registered a sub-.600 OPS with his new club. Offseason addition Christian Walker has been a league-average hitter in his worst offensive season in four years.
Walker homered twice Saturday. Sánchez homered once. It was too little, too late.
“Felt like this team, there’s a lot of special moments that can happen in this room,” Walker said. “So, it sucks not to be able to show that on the postseason stage.”
The rotation dealt with its own issues, with little to rely on when All-Star Hunter Brown wasn’t starting. Framber Valdez struggled down the stretch of a contract year, and injuries prevented the rotation they envisioned from coming to fruition.
As the season began to slip away, Paredes returned on Sept. 19 ahead of a vital division series against the Mariners, though clearly not close to 100% One day later, the Astros lost Peña again, this time to an oblique injury.
With the division still up for grabs at the time, Seattle entered Daikin Park and cemented their superiority, sweeping the Astros in Houston en route to winning their first division title since 2001.
What happened next for the Astros, who still had a 66.2% chance to make the playoffs at the time, was far less forgivable.
The Houston offense mustered just one run on Tuesday in Sacramento against an Athletics team that’s surrendered more runs at home than any team in the American League. A day later, the Astros got shut out with Brown on the mound, absorbing a fifth straight loss and falling a game behind the Guardians and Tigers for the final wild-card spot.
By Friday night, they seemed reserved to their fate. Everything had broken their way earlier in the evening, with the Tigers and Guardians both losing. The Astros jumped out to an early 3-0 lead in Anaheim against an Angels team that sported MLB’s third-worst record after the break. A win would move them into a tie for the final playoff spot with two games to go.
Instead, they served up two Mike Trout homers and lost 4-3.
“We tried to fight until the last day,” Altuve said. “We had some chances before today’s game, and it didn’t happen. Not a good feeling.”
They survived George Springer’s exit in 2021. They weathered the departure of Correa in 2022, storming to their second World Series championship. But this year, the absences of Tucker and Bregman combined with a flood of injuries were too much to overcome.
And the most decorated chapter in Houston’s history reached its conclusion, leaving Espada to address his team in an unfamiliar position with the Astros’ season over before October began.
“The room is quiet,” Espada said. “It’s never been this quiet after eight years, after game 161, 162. But they took it to heart. They know we’ve got work to do, and these guys know this shall pass. We’ll get back up, we’ll heal up, and we’ll be ready to go in March.”
Rowan Kavner is an MLB writer for FOX Sports. He previously covered the L.A. Dodgers, LA Clippers and Dallas Cowboys. An LSU grad, Rowan was born in California, grew up in Texas, then moved back to the West Coast in 2014. Follow him on X at @RowanKavner.
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