Stock Market Live Updates 25th Aug 2025: Sensex tumbles 720 pts, Nifty at 24,500 as US tariff impact weighs on export stocks

Jefferies on Auto Sector

A potential GST cut should provide a boost to auto demand, especially in 2Ws and small PVs

Raise FY26-28E 2W & PV industry volumes by 2-6%, driving 2-8% EPS upgrades for TVSL, HMCL, MSIL and HYUNDAI

Expect TVSL & MM to deliver highest 27% & 19% FY25-28E EPS CAGR respectively

Hero Moto – Upgrade to Hold from Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 5,200 from Rs 3,800

TVS Motor – Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 4,250 from Rs 3,500

Maruti – Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 17,500 from Rs 14,750

Hyundai – Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 2,000 from Rs 1,700

Bajaj Auto – Maintain Hold; Hike TP to Rs 9,000 from Rs 8,000

Eicher – Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 6,925 from Rs 6,500

M&M – Maintain Buy; Hike TP to Rs 4,200 from Rs 4,000

Tata Motors – Maintain Underperform; Hike TP to Rs 575 from Rs 550

Ashok Leyland – Maintain Hold with TP of Rs 120

Nuvama on Maruti

Target price – Rs 14300 (maintain Buy)

MSIL’s first EV: eVitara production kicks off

SMG plant capacity of 0.75mn is being expanded to 1mn in FY27E with the new line being fungible across powertrains

eVitara is being rolled out at SMG at investment of Rs 2,200cr, and shall be sold in 100-plus countries including Europe, Japan and India

Production planned at 70,000-plus units in the first 12 months

Suzuki group company TDSG has invested Rs 4,270cr, and has capacity of 18mn cells for hybrids, which is being expanded to 30mn cells

Elara Securities | Auto Dealer Checks (Ganesh Chaturthi Day 1)

2W: Low-single digit growth YoY; postponements in many regions on GST cut hopes

Rural: GST impact awareness low → steady buying continues

Royal Enfield: Outperformed (low base + GST confusion benefit)

PV: More postponements (big-ticket buyers more sensitive to GST news)

Elara: Even small growth for 2W is a positive signal

Macquarie on Telecom Sector

Reliance Jio’s pivot to ‘value over volume’ drives a stronger EBITDA growth outlook relative to Bharti

EBITDA growth driven by ARPU improvements in stealth and operating leverage; Jio > Bharti

Capex intensity to moderate for both Jio, Bharti; VI spend requires external financing

ROIC improvement highest for Tata Comm

Bharti Hexacom – Maintain Underperform; Cut TP to Rs 1,380 from Rs 1,480

Vodafone Idea – Maintain Underperform; Cut TP to Rs 5 from Rs 6.5

Reliance – Maintain Outperform; Hike TP to Rs 1,650 from Rs 1,580

Airtel – Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 2,050

Tata Communications – Maintain Outperform with TP of Rs 2,210

Indus Towers – Maintain Underperform with TP of Rs 300

Avendus on Aluminium

Tariff led Metal fever to break & Scrap market tightness to deepen –Dual headwinds

Potential decline in metal price & recycling margins are 2 key risks

Reiterate -ve stance

1)Hindalco- SELL; TP Rs 615; at CMP stk fully prices in continuation of superior margins in India ops & margin reversal in Novelis to$500/tn (vs$430/tn in Q1’26) Benefits of BayMinette expansion is atleast 15M away

b) Nalco- REDUCE; TP Rs 185)– metal price decline to weigh on earnings trajectory; attach low probability of meaningful recovery in Alumina prices led by rising global supply

MS on NBFCs

Since March 2025, have been flagging downside risks to consensus estimates

This has started playing out visibly in 1QF26 results

Think investors should stay selective and look for margin of safety

In large caps, are OW on BAF, PFC, REC, SHMF and Muthoot & EW on Chola

In small / mid-caps, OW on Aptus, Home First, AB Cap and Can Fin Homes

Retained OW on PNBHF on fundamentals; however, uncertain outlook is likely to weigh on stock in near term

JPM on OMCs

Stocks are cheap on FY27 earnings projections that build in a per liter increase in petrol/diesel excise duties (lower OMC margins).

There should be little downside even if taxes on these companies are raised.

However, longer Gov’t stays away, more cash flow these cos accrue.

This should help drive stocks up near term; Prefer BPCL

CLSA on OMCs

Benefit from Russian oil imports way less than exaggerated media numbers

India gets 36% of oil imports from Russia, which supplies c.5% of global demand

Oil prices could rise to US$90-100/bbl if India stops importing Russian oil

Believe issue of Russian crude oil imports has now become a political one with India reiterating its freedom to choose its trade partners within purview of global trade rules

HSBC On OMCs

Given lower oil prices and reduced LPG losses, expect strong earnings; any pay-outs for under-recoveries a positive

1Q earnings lower than estimated due to higher inventory losses; marketing margins strong, while LPG losses reduced

Maintain Buy ratings on BPCL – TP Rs 420, HPCL – TP Rs 520, & IOC – TP Rs 190

Antique on Textiles

Higher tariffs to impact US textile exports

Enforcement of reciprocal tariffs will lead to potential tariff burden of ~62%-65% on textile and apparel exports

Lower tariffs on competing countries-China (30%), Bangladesh (20%), Pakistan (19%), and Vietnam (20%)

India at a relative disadvantage to key competitors

We expect Indian exports to remain impacted unless the country concludes a trade deal with the US

Arvind and Welspun Living have US exposure of 38% and 60% respectively

We downgrade Arvind to Hold with a revised target price of Rs 330 (previously Rs 453)

Continue to maintain Hold on Welspun Living, target price Rs 132 (vs Rs 155 earlier) and KPR Rs 1,055

MOSL on Adani Ports

Recommendation Buy

Target Price ₹1,700

Charting a transformational journey

Building scale and market leadership in ports

Logistics business – growing exponentially

Marine services: A fast-growing, capital-efficient growth engine

Morgan Stanley on Real Estate

Residential Sales Robust in July

Propequity data shows good sales growth, despite fewer new launches, leading to a slight dip in inventory

Price growth moderated vs. last two quarters but stayed strong

Mumbai and Bangalore were stronger than other cities

Jefferies on ICICI Bank

Recommendation Buy

Target Price ₹1,760

FY25 annual report and 20F show that risk profile of assets has risen

See a rise in share of lower-rated loans (SME) & RWA/ assets, but quality has held up and credit costs stay low

NPLs highest in 5 years

PSL is improving and will limit drag from compliance cost

Jefferies on Polycab

Buy, TP Rs 8180

Over past 12 qtrs, Co has consistently delivered double-digit C&W sales growth, with steady 12-15% EBIT margin

Diverse sales stream (B2G (eg: power, mobility) est 30%; B2B private capex: 35%; Housing 20%, Exports 6%; FMEG 10%), market share gains (27% now; +10% in 5Y), power capex, FMEG margin turnaround & strong order books in RDSS & Bharat Net are key drivers

Est FY25-28e EPS CAGR at +26%; FY27e PE now at 32x, inline with its hist 5Y avg

Jefferies on Consumer Fin

For Jul-25, industry credit card spending growth moderated MoM to 12% YoY (15%, Jun-25), lowest since Mar-25; card vol growth was stable at 7% YoY

SBI Cards, spending grew 21% YoY (stable MoM) & its spending market share was steady at 17%

Its card volume growth was steady at 10% YoY as it stays cautious towards new card additions.

Among key players, spending share of ICICI rose MoM, while that of HDFCB and Axis fell slightly MoM

Retain Hold on SBI Cards

Investec on RBL BK

Buy, TP Rs 300

NDR Takeaways

Management highlighted RoA should trend upwards to 1% by Q4, primarily aided by normalisation of NIMs (which at 4.5% in 1Q have largely bottomed unless there are further repo rate cuts, per management)

Bank expects loan growth in FY26 to trend 3-4ppts higher than industry (ie 13-14%)

On asset quality, it sees trends in both MFI & cards (85% of net slippages) improving through course of year (< 2% FY26 credit cost guidance vs 1.9% in 1Q)

On capital front (CET1 at 14%), bank will be taking an enabling board resolution for potential raise in FY26 – it intends to improve RoA delivery 1st before any potential dilution

MOSL On Coforge

Buy, TP Rs 2240

Management meet key takeaways

Co highlighted that while industry-wide demand remains mixed, budgets are opening up for vendors that can deliver outcome-driven solutions

Coforge aiming to sign at least 20 deals above $20m in FY26 (five done so far)

Co ’s FY26 EBIT margin guidance stands at 14%

Management also expects cash flow conversion to improve meaningfully going fwd

SBI Research on Tariffs

US imposes 50% tariff on ~$45 Bn of Indian exports

Sectors hit most: Textiles, gems & jewellery, seafood; pharma & smartphones exempt

Worst scenario India’s trade surplus will convert to trade deficit

However, we believe trade negotiations will restore confidence and improve export to US

Textiles impact: With 50% tariff, India loses competitiveness vs China (30%), Vietnam (20%), Indonesia (19%), Japan (15%)

Gems & jewellery: $10 Bn exports hit; US = ~⅓rd of sector’s $28.5 Bn shipments

Seafood (esp. shrimp): Over half exports to US, now face cancellations, rivals (Ecuador) benefit

We believe that US tariffs is likely to affect US GDP by 40-50 bps and higher input cost inflation