Is Coachella's surprise lineup release a recession signal?

Underwear sales, cardboard boxes, and lipstick — when sales of these staples sag, some say it’s a sign of a recession. But what about one of America’s biggest music festivals announcing their lineup and selling tickets months earlier than expected? Industry proponents are mixed; maybe economists, even more so.

That’s what AEG Presents and Goldenvoice did last week, blindsiding the festival-going crowd with the surprise release of the Coachella lineup after midnight on Tuesday. Not even 48 hours later, the first tickets would go on sale. 

The move surprised music fans, largely because the Indio, CA-based festival has historically held its lineups until closer to the two-weekend event in April. Last year, the festival was announced in November, then tickets going on sale a few days later.

It also surprised some economic hawks. Coachella remains an extremely affluent event, with general admission during the festival’s first weekend setting you back $649. For the second weekend, it’s only a touch less, at $549. Both prices are up year-over-year in the presale. 

Perhaps the festivals decision to announce the event earlier was a sign of something awry with America’s consumers.

Is Coachella’s Earlier Sale a Sign of a Recession?

By itself, it’s hard to say if Coachella’s early announcement is a recession signal of sorts. Historically, the live music business has proven strong in times of economic tumult. However, the earlier sale does send a clear message: it was time for change at one of America’s most-recognizable festivals.

In recent years, Coachella has struggled to completely sell out, even in times where American affluents were spending like crazy. There are a number of theories for why Coachella has faced shortcomings, including its steep cost, its lineups and experience, as well as changing attitudes towards ‘mainstream’ music.

There are some theories for Coachella’s early sale as well, which have been put forward by members of the music industry:

Locking In Talent Early

Music industry platform ROSTR said in its 6th edition of “Who Booked Coachella?” that the earlier sale could simply be about “locking down … big headline anchors earlier in a world where a lot of the most in-demand artists are making hay on solo world tours.”

Zach Walker, the VP of Partnerships at ticketing company Shotgun, agrees that locking down talent early is a big factor, especially considering how Coachella is sold. Previous attendees of the festival can buy tickets months before the actual lineup is announced and ticket prices go up for the public sale. However, that requires taking a pretty expensive gamble.

“Sometimes bookings can take time and in previous years, finalizing bookings has delayed the lineup release and fans had to decide to take a leap of faith knowing there would be fun acts to see.” Walker said. “Fans are becoming more selective with their hard earned cash and where to spend it which means they’re less likely to drop a lot of money on a festival where they don’t know who will be performing.”

The festival did make some big changes in talent, where bona fide pop stars like Sabrina Carpenter, Justin Bieber, and Karol G are atop the lineup. Those are artists that many Americans know; they attract crowds and sell tickets.

And the undercard is fairly inspiring, too, with a large array of artists that boast cult followings. Artists like Radiohead, KATSEYE, and Ethel Cain are among the cropping that — despite being smaller — have also proven to pull crowds wherever they play.

Longer Time To Sell Tickets

ROSTR’s report also adds that “getting a longer on-sale period” could help the festival generate buzz, show off its hard work (lineup), and sell through all of its tickets.

This trend also coincides with ‘locking in talent early’ and can be seen at live music giant and competitor Live Nation  (LYV) , which had sold a record number of tickets year-on-year; over 130 million in total through July, even as many of those events remain months in the future.  

Related: Live Nation seeks to expand its live music dominance with a new app for festival attendees, super fans

In short, a changing live music industry has already been pushing out lead times on tours and individual shows. It might stand to reason that this is now coming to the festival side, too.

These changes should be watched as Live Nation’s festivals announce their lineups in the coming months. Among them are Lollapalooza, Governor’s Ball, and Austin City Limits, which could offer a bellwether of whether or not there are big changes coming.

More Payment Time

A longer lead time also has another effect, which would have helped in the event that the organizers were positioning themselves against some economic weakness.

Last year, Coachella said that 60% of festivalgoers financed their tickets on a payment plan. This allowed attendees to pay their ticket in installments, just a $50 fee and $49 down at checkout, then a monthly payment based on when you bought the ticket. 

With over six months left until the festival, this means that people relying on the payment plan (e.g: the majority of attendees) could get an additional month to pay back this year, softening the elevated cost.

Counterpoint: It Actually Sold Out This Year

Of course, there might actually be a counter-recession indicator in the Coachella pre-sale. That’s because… spoiler alert… the festival sold out already. 

That might be surprising, but it might just be a testament to the significance of the changes. Perhaps Coachella’s organizers were accepting the new conditions of their industry; maybe they were positioning for the worst.

However, Coachella’s successful sell out might also tell us something else: even as Americans say the economy is struggling, there’s some evidence that more affluent, coastal-curious Americans are continuing to spend and propping up the economy.

Maybe it just goes to show how the American economy is becoming more of the ‘have and have nots.’ Or, maybe, it’s more complicated: maybe it’s a sign that younger Americans from all backgrounds are willing to shell out on experiences, even in the face of economic turbulence.

It’s too early to say if that’s the case for sure, though. We’ll be watching to see if the festival’s organizers share what percent of attendees financed their tickets; perhaps that will offer some signs of stress. 

Either way you cut it, that doesn’t sound very recession-core, to be honest.

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