Joel Klatt
Lead College Football Analyst
Conferences aren’t won in September, but it often reveals which teams will be contending for a conference championship in November and December.
Clemson won’t be a part of that mix in the ACC. However, a couple of surprise teams have emerged in the conference instead. The Big Ten has largely gone to script at this point, while the SEC and Big 12 have had some surprising results through the first month of the season.
So, which teams have the best chance to win each conference? I decided to tier the contenders in all four power conferences, while also tiering the possible College Football Playoff contenders among the Group of 6, too.
Big Ten
Favorites
Ohio State, Oregon
It’s scary that Ohio State lost 14 draft picks and is as good as it’s been, especially with a redshirt freshman at quarterback. But Jeremiah Smith has been the best player in college football and Caleb Downs has been great. The defense might be even better than a year ago, which is wild. As Ohio State brings Julian Sayin along, this offense looks scary.
There’s one concern I have for Oregon: The Ducks didn’t stop the run well against Northwestern. They’re going to have to do that this week at Penn State. But quarterback Dante Moore is going to be right there in the Heisman mix, he’s that talented.
Ohio State and Georgia in Joel Klatt’s conference tiers
Contenders
Penn State, Indiana
Why isn’t Penn State in Tier 1? The Nittany Lions haven’t proven they can win a matchup game in recent years, and I’m leaving room for growth as they prepare for Oregon this weekend. This team has been inconsistent this year. Even though they have been dominant at times, they have sleptwalked through other areas of their games against inferior opponents. Drew Allar has not looked like the quarterback I thought he would look like in terms of just owning the game from the pocket. But Penn State can move into Tier 1 with a win this weekend.
As for Indiana, it’s similar to Penn State over the last two years in that it’s beating the teams that it should, but failing in the matchup games. But you could argue that the Illinois game was a matchup game for Indiana, and it blew out the Fighting Illini in Week 4. Still, the Hoosiers need to beat a top-tier opponent in order to move up, just like Penn State.
In the mix
Michigan, Washington, USC
Michigan had a very impressive performance at Nebraska this past weekend. The Wolverines totally owned Nebraska at the line of scrimmage, running it for nearly 300 yards and getting seven sacks on defense. Frankly, I didn’t think the 30-27 score was indicative of how the game went. Bryce Underwood is going to be a star. Simply put, Michigan is further ahead now compared to this point last year.
Can Washington get a little respect? The Huskies didn’t even get a vote in the AP Top 25 Poll this past week. They have the No. 2 scoring offense in college football at 58 points per game. If you listened to me over the offseason, you would’ve known that Washington was a sneaky candidate to compete in the Big Ten. Demond Williams Jr. is in the top five in passing yards, running back Jonah Coleman is in the top 10 in rushing and wide receiver Denzel Boston is coming off a 100-yard, two-touchdown game against Washington State. They have a huge opportunity at home against Ohio State this weekend.
Denzel Boston is on pace for a near-1,000-yard season and 12 touchdowns through the first three games of the season. (Photo by Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
USC looks like a team that has real staying power. The Trojans are much different than they’ve been the last couple of years, because they’re doing some of the fundamental things that I feel you need to do to be a quality team, and they’re doing them well. They’re running the football, stopping the run, and they’re so much better at the line of scrimmage. The offense looks like the offense we saw Lincoln Riley coach at Oklahoma, ranking first in yards per play. Running back Waymond Jordan is a legitimate Heisman contender, and quarterback Jayden Maiava has been outstanding.
SEC
Favorite
Georgia
The favorite in the SEC is Georgia. Why? Someone’s got to beat Georgia, and it’s been proven to be very difficult. Just ask Tennessee.
Contenders
Alabama, Tennessee, LSU, Texas A&M
I still believe in Alabama. I really like the response that it’s given following its loss to Florida State. The Tide don’t have a ton of wiggle room with their schedule, but quarterback Ty Simpson looks like a bona fide star throwing to Ryan Williams. They are also getting key players back from injury, so I think this is a dangerous team.
Ty Simpson has scored eight total touchdowns in Alabama’s two games since the Florida State loss. (Photo by Michael Chang/Getty Images)
The fact that Tennessee took Georgia to the wire puts the Vols at No. 2. Joey Aguilar is a perfect fit at quarterback, and their wide receivers are really good. They can bury you, and they did that to the Bulldogs, for the most part.
I admittedly don’t love keeping LSU in Tier 2. The Tigers haven’t looked great, and Clemson’s continued losses are hurting them. But what I’ve loved about LSU is its turnaround on the defensive side. My concern is on the offensive side, but don’t ask Brian Kelly about it, especially with the first question.
Texas A&M’s offense looked incredible at Notre Dame in Week 3. It has real speed on the outside to go with quarterback Marcel Reed. My concern would be on the defensive side as Texas A&M gave up a ton of points in that game.
In the mix
Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri
You might be thinking to yourself that this is a steep drop for Texas. But has Texas inspired any confidence so far this season? The Longhorns finally came back to the land of the living against Sam Houston State this past weekend. If they can replicate that performance moving forward, they will easily move up in the tiers. Their defense is one of the best in the country, and it appears to have gotten a boost in the interim because …
John Mateer’s injury really hurts Oklahoma, especially as it looks like he’ll miss the Red River Rivalry in a few weeks. The Sooners probably would’ve been in Tier 2 had it not been for Mateer’s injury. Now, I’m nervous for OU, because this team won’t beat a quality opponent without Mateer because they don’t have enough answers on the offensive side.
Watch out for Missouri. This one of my sleeper teams entering the season, and they’ve looked strong to start the year with a win over South Carolina this past weekend. Ahmad Hardy is running the ball as well as any running back in the country. The defensive line has been very good, too.
Big 12
Favorite
Texas Tech
The biggest compliment I can give a coach is this: I’ve always believed that teams take on the character of their coach. So when I see a team that loves each other, plays physically and really hard, that tells me that they have a great coach. That’s what I texted Joey McGuire after Texas Tech’s win at Utah. Their offensive and defensive lines are really good, and they have depth at quarterback. They have playmakers everywhere, too.
Texas Tech was able to beat Utah on the road with backup Will Hammond replacing an injured Behren Morton at quarterback during the game. (Photo by Chris Gardner/ Getty Images)
Contenders
Iowa State, Utah, TCU
Iowa State is a tough team to beat because quarterback Roco Becht always gives them a chance to win. He’s such a gamer in the biggest moments in the fourth quarter, which he showed in Iowa State’s win over Iowa in Week 2.
I know Utah lost at home to Texas Tech this past weekend, but that game was a lot closer than the score indicated. Utah is still going to be a very difficult team to beat, because it will be able to run the football and its defense will be tough to score on.
Don’t sleep on TCU. Josh Hoover leads the nation in passing entering Week 5, and TCU has already picked up a pair of impressive wins over SMU and UNC.
In the mix
Arizona State, Kansas, BYU, Arizona
Arizona State had a slip-up at Mississippi State in Week 2, but it got a big win at Baylor in Week 4. I still like the quarterback-wide receiver duo of Sam Leavitt and Jordyn Tyson.
Kansas is a dangerous team. It thumped West Virginia after losing at Missouri, and it has experience at quarterback in Jalon Daniels, which I like.
I know BYU hasn’t played anyone yet, but the Cougars are 3-0, and they statistically have one of the best defenses in the country. Running back LJ Martin is rushing for over 100 yards per game. Their matchup at Colorado on Saturday is interesting because, on paper, BYU should have the better roster.
Nobody is paying attention to Arizona. This program had a tough first year under Brett Brennan, but he’s a really good coach. The Wildcats are actually kind of playing like how we thought they would last year, with Noah Fifita giving them solid play at quarterback.
ACC
Favorites
Miami (Fla.), Florida State
These two teams have clearly separated themselves from the rest of the conference. Miami is clearly one of the better teams in the country, and I think Florida State is as well. With how well Alabama continues to play, shouldn’t it be safe to say that Florida State is an elite team? That game next week should be interesting.
Miami clearly has answers. Quarterback Carson Beck can beat you, or the offensive line can beat you. The same can be said with Florida State. It has an identity with this Gus Malzahn offense.
Carson Beck has helped Miami look like a national championship contender after transferring to the program over the offeseason. (Photo by Carmen Mandato/Getty Images)
Contender
Georgia Tech
This isn’t a deep league, which is why Georgia Tech is alone in Tier 2. But the schedule lines up well for Georgia Tech as it avoids Miami and Florida State, which means the ACC could get up to three teams in the CFP. I also just love quarterback Haynes King.
In the mix
Louisville, Syracuse
This is where I had to open things up a bit. Louisville hasn’t been tested yet, but head coach Jeff Brohm gets the benefit of the doubt from me. He typically gets the best out of his quarterbacks, and Miller Moss has had good moments in the past.
As for Syracuse, it just knocked off Clemson on the road, but it unfortunately lost quarterback Steve Angeli to an Achilles injury. That’s a major bummer. The second half of Syracuse’s schedule gets tougher, though.
Group of 6
Favorite
USF
The American looks like the strongest non-power conference, so a lot of the teams are going to come from there. USF has the best singular win out of the Group of 6, and remember, it destroyed Boise State in Week 1. No shame in losing to Miami.
Quarterback Byrum Brown was a key reason for USF’s upset wins over Boise State and Florida. (Photo by Samuel Lewis/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Contenders
Memphis, Old Dominion, Navy
Memphis came back from 18 points down to beat Arkansas this past weekend, doing so on 290 rushing yards. So, it can run the ball.
Old Dominion only lost to Indiana by 13, which looks a lot better after this past weekend. It also beat Virginia Tech by 19. It also has one of the best rushing attacks in the country, with quarterback Colton Joseph rushing for over 7.5 yards per carry.
We know how tough Navy can be. They’ve won all three games by at least two touchdowns and Blake Horvath is back for a second year as Navy’s starting quarterback, which I value.
In the mix
North Texas, UNLV, Tulane
North Texas has already picked up a pair of impressive wins, first beating Washington State by 49 before taking down Army on the road.
UNLV has been playing with fire, with three of its four wins coming by seven points or less. It also beat UCLA, but is that great? Not sure.
Tulane got blown out by Ole Miss last week. However, it has picked up two wins over other power conference teams (Northwestern, Duke) already this season.
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him at @joelklatt and subscribe to the “Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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