As U.S. officials meet for the MSC, Europe must step-up on defense

As the world’s defense and security elite gathers for the Munich Security Conference, the future of Ukraine, peace talks with Russia and reshaping Europe’s security and defense architecture will be at the fore of discussions.

Top U.S. officials, including Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg, are among the delegates travelling to Germany on Friday for the start of the two-day summit, an annual event that brings together the most high-profile figures from the defense and security sectors.

The summit comes just days after U.S. President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to start peace talks, and that he had instructed U.S. officials to begin negotiations immediately.

The substance of those talks, and what conditions and compromises Moscow and Kyiv — and the U.S. — are likely to demand as part of those negotiations will be a focal point for delegates at the MSC.

All the while, the role Europe will play in the discussions remains to be seen, despite Ukraine’s insistence that its most steadfast ally is included in talks.

Ahead of Trump’s peace talks bombshell on Wednesday, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth gave a flavor of what was to come, stunning Ukraine and its allies by stating that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders and NATO membership for Ukraine were “unrealistic” objectives.

He also called on “capable European and non-European troops” to back any security guarantee for Ukraine, stating emphatically that U.S. troops would not be deployed to the country. There should be no NATO involvement in any peacekeeping mission Ukraine either, he added.

Analysts say Europe faces the choice of stepping-up and taking on more responsibility for Ukraine’s defense and, ultimately, its own security.

“President Trump has succumbed to Putin’s charm and historical narrative and will end most U.S. military involvement in the Russian war in Ukraine. There was no prior discussion with the Allies. It is as if the “ironclad commitment” never existed,” said David Roche, strategist at Quantum Strategy.

“That has knock on effects. U.S. support for NATO continues for now but, contradictorily, European security must be led by Europeans. In sum, Europe can no longer rely on NATO and must set up its own defence – an expensive exercise,” he said in emailed comments.

Trump has long criticized NATO allies in Europe for not spending enough on defense and has called on member states to increase funding to 5% of GDP, with Defense Secretary Hegseth on Wednesday backing that demand.

As things stand, only 23 of NATO’s 32 members have reached the 2% target, as per NATO estimates for defense spending in 2024.

Some analysts defended the Trump administration’s position, stating that his “America First” plan for Ukraine could be the wake-up call that Europe needs.

“While Europe has sought to isolate Putin, Trump engaged. The ‘productive phone call’ between the two will have enraged Europe’s politicians – but what can they do unless they are prepared to fund Ukraine’s fight for freedom?,”  Bill Blain, market strategist and founder of Wind Shift Capital, stated in emailed comments Thursday.

“Europe is Europe’s problem, and Ukraine is part of Europe … While there will be a lot of wailing about Trump’s America betraying Ukraine, and his unreliability towards Europe, perhaps it’s the ‘wake up and smell the coffee‘ moment Europe needs,” Blain said, adding: “Ukrainian Peace will be Europe’s problem.”

Ukraine’s allies in Europe appear to have been blindsided by Trump’s unilateral move to force peace talks on Ukraine and Russia, with the continent’s top officials fearing that they could be left on the sidelines.

On Thursday, Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s foreign policy chief, said that any agreement reached behind the bloc’s back “wouldn’t work” and that the bloc would devise “new initiatives” to support Ukraine, if Kyiv decided to “resist” a deal. She offered no further details as to what these could be.

“Any quick fix is a dirty deal,” Kallas said, in comments reported by Reuters, adding that “we have seen that before, it won’t stop the killing.”

Ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels on Thursday, Hegseth denied the accusation that the U.S. had betrayed Ukraine by seemingly imposing negotiations upon it.

“There is no betrayal there. There is a recognition that the whole world and the United States is invested and interested in peace,” Hegseth said, adding that talks “will require both sides recognising things they don’t want to.”

European officials also criticized the Trump’s administration’s gloomy stance on Ukraine’s future membership of NATO and the possibility of regaining all the territory it’s lost to Russia since 2014.

“It is regrettable, and I say this myself, but it is part of the truth. The Trump administration has already made public concessions to Putin before negotiations have even begun,” German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said Thursday.

“In my view, it would have been better to talk about Ukraine’s possible NATO membership or the country’s possible loss of territory at the negotiating table first and not take it off the table beforehand,” Pistorius added, in comments translated by Reuters.