Congratulations are in order for the Cleveland Guardians, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs, all of whom get to host their respective MLB wild-card round series.
While that’s certainly a great accomplishment, there’s a 66.7% chance that their season ends in the next four days.
That’s right. Since the wild-card round was implemented on a full-time basis in the 2022 season, the road team has won eight of 12 series.
Here’s the evidence and context of those consequential series:
The Cardinals led 2-0 going into the top of the ninth inning of Game 1 and got the leadoff batter out to begin the inning. Then, the Phillies came to life in dramatic fashion, scoring six runs without an extra-base hit and holding on for the win in the bottom of the inning.
Philadelphia then shut out St. Louis in Game 2, 2-0, thanks to 6 2/3 scoreless innings from right-hander Aaron Nola to take the series. The Phillies followed that up by taking down the defending World Series champion and National League East champion Atlanta Braves in the NL Division Series and later advanced to the World Series.
Citi Field was buzzing for Game 1, but the Padres got the best of Mets right-hander Max Scherzer, blasting four home runs and driving in seven runs total for a 7-1 victory. New York bounced back with a 7-3 victory in Game 2, highlighted by a three-hit night from outfielder Brandon Nimmo.
That said, San Diego finished off the deal in Game 3, thanks to seven shutout innings from Joe Musgrove and 10 hits as a collective whole, which contributed to six runs and a 6-0 win. The Padres went on to beat the Dodgers in the NLDS. On the other side, it marked the end of the road for a Mets team that won 101 games and lost the NL East to the Braves based on a tiebreaker.
Seattle made a blockbuster move for right-hander Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, and he rewarded their bold move in Game 1, tossing 7 1/3 scoreless innings en route to a 4-0 Mariners victory. Catcher Cal Raleigh hit a two-run home run in the first inning, and third baseman Eugenio Suarez drove in two runs himself.
There’s a reason we play all nine innings, though. Entering the sixth inning of Game 2, Toronto held a 7-1 lead and looked poised to force a Game 3, but the fish of the Pacific Northwest had other ideas, posting a pair of four-run innings in the sixth and eighth to roar back for an eventual 10-9 series-clinching victory. Carlos Santana hit a three-run home run in the sixth, and J.P. Crawford cleared the bases with a three-run double in the eighth. It marked Seattle’s first wild-card win since 2001.
Arizona went down 3-0 through the first two innings, but home runs from Corbin Carroll and Ketel Marte evened up the score in the third and a solo shot from Gabriel Moreno gave the Diamondbacks the lead. Thanks to 6 1/3 scoreless innings from its bullpen and a two-run double in the ninth inning from Christian Walker, Arizona took Game 1.
Yet again, Milwaukee got out to a quick lead in Game 2, scoring two runs in the bottom of the first, but Zac Gallen got back on track for Arizona, pitching through the sixth inning without surrendering another run. Alek Thomas got the D-backs on the board with a solo homer in the fifth, which was followed by a four-run sixth that put them up for good. Arizona followed up the road triumph by sweeping the Dodgers in the Division Series and later beating the Phillies to advance to the World Series. Oh, and the D-backs won just 84 games in the regular season.
Producing the World Series runner-up for a second consecutive year stands out on its own, but the 2023 wild-card round also produced the team that won the World Series.
Over an eventual two-game series sweep, Texas held Tampa Bay to just one run, with Jordan Montgomery pitching seven scoreless innings in Game 1 and Nathan Eovaldi giving up just one run through 6 2/3 innings in Game 2. As for the series-clinching Game 2, the Rangers got a three-hit game from Josh Jung, while Adolis Garcia and Evan Carter — who had two doubles in Game 1, which was a 4-0 victory — each hit home runs, leading to a 7-1 Texas victory.
The Rangers proceeded to beat the Orioles, who won an American League-best 101 games in 2023, in the Division Series, take down the defending World Series champion and AL West rival Astros in the AL Championship Series and beat the Diamondbacks for their first World Series in franchise history.
Game 1 was a back-and-forth affair, but the Mets took control of the game in the fifth inning, scoring five runs, which would mark the final runs of the game and give New York an 8-4 win. Luis Severino pitched through the sixth inning, while Mark Vientos, Jesse Winker and J.D. Martinez drove in two runs apiece. Then, the Mets led 3-2 in the bottom of the eighth inning of Game 2, but the Brewers struck for three runs, as Jackson Chourio — who homered twice — and Garrett Mitchell each hit home runs off Phil Maton, and Milwaukee held on to extend the series with a 5-3 win.
Game 3 was chaotic. Scoreless entering the seventh inning, Milwaukee broke the tie with Jake Bauers and Sal Frelick hitting back-to-back home runs. The Brewers then took a 2-0 lead into the ninth with their All-Star closer, Devin Williams, on the mound. But then it happened, as Pete Alonso hit a go-ahead, three-run home run and Starling Marte added an RBI single four batters later. David Peterson shut the door with a one-two-three inning, and the Mets advanced. They then beat the NL East rival Phillies in the NLDS.
An ascending Tigers club muzzled the Astros in their home park. Thanks to six shutout innings from Tarik Skubal in Game 1 and a bullpen day execution giving up just two runs in Game 2, Detroit held Houston’s esteemed offense to just three runs in a two-game series sweep.
As for what they did with the bats, the Tigers put three runs on the board on three consecutive singles off Framber Valdez in the second inning of Game 1 and survived a ninth-inning scare to get a narrow, 3-1 victory. The following day, Parker Meadows hit a solo homer, but the Tigers took the lead in the eighth, getting four runs off All-Star relievers Ryan Pressly and Josh Hader, highlighted by a bases-clearing double by Andy Ibanez, helping finish off a 5-2 win.
A Baltimore offense that was second in home runs, fourth in runs and seventh in hits had the clamps put on it by Kansas City. In Game 1, Cole Ragans recorded eight strikeouts and surrendered just four baserunners across six scoreless innings for the Royals. The next day, Seth Lugo held his own, but Kansas City’s bullpen pitched 4 2/3 shutout innings, helping it get a 2-1 closeout win. In all, the O’s only scored one run in the series.
The irony here is that the Royals only scored three runs in the series. An RBI single from Bobby Witt Jr. in the sixth inning of Games 1 and 2 and a first-inning RBI single from Vinnie Pasquantino in Game 2 made for all of Kansas City’s run production. Great pitching is great pitching. It wins.
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