In Trump’s Shadow, Greenland Votes for a New Government

With Greenland thrust into the spotlight by President Trump’s insistence that the United States will somehow “get” it, Greenlanders held a closely watched election on Tuesday that took on unusual importance — not just for the outside world, but for them as well.

Voter turnout hit its highest level in more than a decade, and polling stations on the remote, sparsely populated island, which is partly controlled by Denmark, stayed open late to accommodate long lines.

But with all votes counted early Wednesday morning, the results were mixed.

The winner was Demokraatit, a party that has been critical of Mr. Trump’s rhetoric. It has taken a moderate stance on the subject of independence from Denmark, which most Greenland politicians support as a long-term goal.

The second most popular party, Naleraq, however, has pushed hard for independence as soon as possible — which some of its members have said would enable Greenland to associate more freely with other countries, including the United States. One of Naleraq’s most prominent figures is very pro-Trump and attended the American president’s inauguration.

Greenlanders are clearly divided, experts said, on how to handle this crossroads.

“What has become clear during the election — and what Denmark must now recognize — is that across the political spectrum, there is dissatisfaction with the current constitutional arrangement,” said Ulrik Pram Gad, a researcher at the Danish Institute for International Studies in Copenhagen. “Regardless of the outcome, there will be calls for renegotiating the structure of the kingdom of Denmark.”

Denmark colonized Greenland more than 300 years ago, and while the island is now considered a semiautonomous territory, Denmark still controls foreign policy, defense and other aspects of its governance. Demokraatit — which won just under 30 percent of the vote, ahead of Naleraq’s 24.5 percent — has consistently argued that independence must not imperil economic and social stability. There are only 56,000 people living on the island, and the difference between first and second place in this election was around 1,500 votes.

Lars Trier Mogensen, a political analyst based in Copenhagen, said he did not expect any drastic changes in Greenland’s geopolitical situation, at least for now.

“The new Greenlandic government is unlikely to rush into major shifts in U.S. relations anytime soon,” he said.

In interviews with voters these past few weeks and during town hall events with candidates, it was local issues like health care, schools and fishing (the island’s main industry) that kept coming up. Some observers said the two leading parties were clearer about what needs to be changed.

For example, they both campaigned on revamping the fisheries law, said Svend Hardenberg, a mining executive and, more recently, a star in a popular Danish Netflix series that, serendipitously, had a whole season about Greenland.

“The main direction is independence,” he said. “I think that can go quicker than most people expect.”

Greenland boasts a trove of minerals and is strategically located near increasingly important Arctic Ocean shipping lanes. Mr. Trump, in an address to Congress last week, said, “I think we’re going to get it — one way or the other, we’re going to get it.”

On Sunday, two days before the election, in a social media post, he made a direct pitch to Greenlanders: “We are ready to INVEST BILLIONS OF DOLLARS to create new jobs and MAKE YOU RICH.”

But Greenlanders have been clear that despite Mr. Trump’s entreaties, they don’t want to be absorbed by the United States, with polls showing that at least 85 percent oppose the idea. “Greenland is not a house that can be bought,” Demokraatit’s leader, Jens-Frederik Nielsen, has said.

Still, Kuno Fencker of Naleraq, who is Greenland’s most pro-Trump politician, got far more votes than he did in the last election, in 2021. Mr. Fencker attended Mr. Trump’s inauguration and took a tour of the West Wing, and his push for stronger ties with the United States drew fierce criticism from his rivals, some of whom labeled him a traitor. In a recent podcast, Mr. Fencker argued that Mr. Trump had been “misunderstood.”

Naleraq’s second-place finish means that pro-independence voices will remain influential, and the party could push for greater engagement with Washington. But Mr. Fencker’s enthusiasm for Mr. Trump might have turned off some voters, analysts said.

“Naleraq positioned itself in a way that made it seem like a vote for them would bring Trump too close,” Mr. Gad said.

Naleraq doubled its seats, from four to eight, in Greenland’s 31-seat Parliament, the Inatsisartut. At an election night party on the outskirts of Nuuk, the capital, party members and supporters embraced, danced and cheered.

Analysts predicted that Demokraatit was likely to form a governing coalition with the more moderate Inuit Ataqatigiit party, or I.A., which finished third, with 21.4 percent of the vote. Inuit Ataqatigiit, the dominant party in the outgoing governing coalition, embraced a go-slow approach to breaking off from Denmark.

Greenland, the world’s biggest island, is home to a mostly Inuit population that Denmark sidelined during the colonial era. Over time, demands for self-rule have led to greater autonomy and a Greenlandic government. One of Naleraq’s selling points, Mr. Gad said, was its “activist language” inspired by international movements like #MeToo and Black Lives Matter.

Today, Greenland manages most of its domestic affairs. But full independence is not going to be easy. Denmark sends hundreds of millions of dollars to the island each year that pays for nice schools, cheap gas and strong social services — a Scandinavian standard of living in a very remote place. Many Greenlanders, even if they are leaning toward independence, have said they are reluctant to jettison all that, which is why the subject of breaking off from Denmark is so sensitive.

Many voters also expressed skepticism, worry and even anger about the way Mr. Trump has talked about their homeland. People have been living on this icy island for thousands of years, surviving off hunting and fishing. The sense of Greenlandic identity runs strong, and during the election, ballots had to be transported by helicopter, boat and snowmobile.

In the final televised debate on Monday, five of the six party leaders said they did not trust Mr. Trump. Only Karl Ingemann of the small Qulleq party said he did. And Mr. Ingemann failed to win a seat.