Erdogan Tries to Leverage Turkey’s NATO Muscle as US Retreats

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(Bloomberg) — When Recep Tayyip Erdogan addressed foreign ambassadors at an iftar dinner in Ankara to break the Ramadan fast last week, he was clear about what he wanted: a permanent seat for an Islamic country on the United Nations Security Council and European Union membership for Turkey.

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The demands are unlikely to be met anytime soon, if at all. But they reflect a renewed swagger for Erdogan as Turkey emerges as a more prominent power broker and NATO linchpin as the US reconfigures its commitment to Europe.   

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The Turkish president has expanded the country’s military and diplomatic footprint from Africa to the Middle East in a way not seen since the end of the Ottoman Empire a century ago.

Now he wants closer defense and economic cooperation with the EU in return for security as the continent looks at ways to reduce reliance on Washington. That could include Turkish troops joining a future Ukraine peacekeeping mission, according to people familiar with the matter.

“Independent policymaking under Erdogan is paying off as it showcases the value of a strategic NATO ally when the West is having trouble,” said Hasan Yukselen, founder of Fusion4Strategy, a risk consultancy in Ankara. “Turkey had a critical role in containing the Soviet Union during the Cold War and it’s emerging as a country that can help end conflicts and stabilize the region.”

Turkey is leveraging its traditional role straddling east and west, with its NATO membership and Muslim identity under Erdogan giving it credibility on both sides at the crossroads of Europe and the Middle East. 

It controls some important routes for maritime trade and energy shipments and was key to an agreement initially to get Ukrainian grain to international markets through the Black Sea. It’s also a crucial barrier to stem the flow of refugees from reaching Europe.

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It’s the country’s defense capabilities, though, that are its strongest card at the moment. Europe is scrambling to arm itself after President Donald Trump pulled the plug on aid for Ukraine and told the continent it shouldn’t rely on the US.

Turkey has the largest fleet of F-16 fighter jets in NATO after the US. It boasts the Incirlik Air Base, which was used for operations against Islamic State and hosts an early-warning radar at Kurecik, a critical part of NATO’s ballistic-missile defense for Europe

Ankara is evaluating a non-combat mission to help monitor the line of contact with Russia in eastern Ukraine depending on Moscow’s consent, the people familiar with the thinking said. They spoke on condition of anonymity.

The country also has developed a sizable arms industry. It’s been a key source of vital 155mm shells for Ukraine and is a growing exporter of naval ships along with combat drones and armored vehicles. It’s also developing ballistic missiles along with main battle tanks and warplanes. Italian company Leonardo SpA has teamed up with a firm run by Erdogan’s son-in-law to develop drones. 

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“We hope that our European friends will understand the role of the new Turkey in the reshaping world and determine their strategies accordingly,” Erdogan said on Monday as he reiterated that he expected relations with the EU to flourish and that full membership was the goal.

Closer ties would come at an opportune time for the economy. Turkey lost its status as a darling of international investors with its unorthodox policies shaped around Erdogan’s conviction that interest rates should be cut to fight high inflation. A U-turn after his re-election in 2023 saw foreign money return, but fell short of longer-term investment, according to Bloomberg Economics. 

Yet, Turkey’s geography throws up as many risks as it does opportunities. Turkey has been contending with the renewed threat from Islamic State in the region, this month establishing a joint operation mechanism with Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq. That’s also as Turkey jostles for influence in post-Assad Syria.

The security situation there has deteriorated as Israel targets military sites with air strikes and deadly violence unfolds in and around the coastal city of Latakia as the new government’s forces clashes with the Alawite minority, of which Assad is a part. Erdogan expressed concern this week over “provocations aimed at stirring sectarian violence.”

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Indeed, there’s concern deep involvement in a Ukrainian peacekeeping mission might overstretch its military. Turkey has thousands of troops deployed in northern Syria and Iraq, and more stationed in Kosovo, Somalia, northern Cyprus, Qatar and Azerbaijan.

Sustaining a resurgent Turkey is also dependent on Erdogan, who is  71 and has no clear successor within his governing AK Party. The president is trying to bolster his support base as his party works to extend his more than two decades in power.

But there are growing concerns over a crackdown on dissent from business executives to opposition figures despite a nascent peace attempt to end a conflict with separatist Kurdish militants that’s been a drag on the economy.

“Erdogan needs closer security and economic cooperation both with the US and European allies to improve Turkey’s economy and bolster his chances of extending his stay in power,” said Serhat Erkmen, director of the Pros&Cons Security and Risk Analysis Center based in Ankara. “At the same time, he’s facing a number of challenges in the Middle East.”   

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Since coming to power in 2003, Erdogan gradually reinvented Turkey as a power in its own right that’s free to make new friends, even if it upsets old ones.

It’s been courting China, Russia and Iran and has opened almost 100 new diplomatic missions across the world over the past two decades. Turkey also worked as a mediator in conflicts in Gaza and Somalia, as well as Ukraine.

Turkey isn’t expecting EU membership, though hopes that strengthening defense ties with Europe could put an end to its exclusion from NATO-EU security partnerships including Permanent Structured Cooperation, known as PESCO.

The change in the security calculus could also give impetus to talks to update Turkey’s customs union deal with the EU and visa free travel for Turkish citizens, according to the people familiar with the situation in Ankara.

“The EU is already Turkey’s largest trade partner and strategic ally in issues including migration, but the indefinite stall on Turkish accession was acting as a drag on the relationship,” said Selva Bahar Baziki, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Ankara. “Now, the prospect of improved relations could see a surge in portfolio and investment flows.”

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Although admitted to the transatlantic military alliance in 1952 along with Greece, Turkey has been subject to numerous arms blockades by its allies, most recently over its 2019 military drive against US-backed Kurdish forces in Syria. Greece and Cyprus also oppose the sale of Eurofighter jets and Meteor guided missiles to Turkey.

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 emerged as an opportunity for Erdogan to burnish his standing with Western allies while keeping ties with Russia.   

Turkey shut down its straits to Russian warships and airspace to Russian military aircraft and supplied armed drones and 155mm shells to Ukraine. At the same time, it refused to join sanctions against Moscow.

The country also has spearheaded the formation of a Black Sea force together with Romania and Bulgaria to hunt for mines and improve shipping safety. Yet it carefully excluded other NATO members from the security effort, including the US and UK, to avoid escalating tensions in the region.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan traveled to London on March 2 after receiving a rare invitation for the country for an emergency summit with allies to secure Ukraine.

“It is becoming increasingly impossible for a Europe in which Turkey is not included as it deserves to be, to continue its existence as a global actor,” Erdogan said as he hosted the ambassadors at the iftar dinner a day later. “To put it bluntly: European security without Turkey is unthinkable.”

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