A jobless future looms while leaders loop in AI

When asked about India’s AI-driven future, a senior policymaker quipped that most citizens would subsist on government rations, lazing away time binge-watching OTT content while a couple of oligarchs controlled the economy. His portrayal of a la-la land unwittingly admits that more jobs will be annihilated by AI than it can create.

The irreversible transformation of industries and jobs is real. As businesses embrace AI, the first question the CEOs are asking is how many jobs it can eliminate, to justify the investment. A vast majority of workforce is in routine jobs, which will be the first victims of AI automation. Just a week ago, Ola laid off 1,000 to automation — many such inflection points are visible. Worse, the agentic AI will obliterate entire job categories by replacing human decision-making. This should be a major concern for a country like India where a large number of youth are entering work-streams and they are most likely find roles in clerical, back-office, service and analytics sectors. Will this bring demographic dividend?

The scale of vulnerability is pretty high. Bulk of the jobs not requiring creativity or critical reasoning will be easy targets for cost-cutting using AI tools. WEF says almost 70 per cent of all jobs in India are at risk of automation. This is alarming and much higher than in developed nations, where innovation-driven roles take more employees and the menial jobs get outsourced to developing economies as we have seen in manufacturing and IT sectors.

White-collar jobs are no more safe, threatened by the advent of agentic AI. The IT sector employs millions of engineers from all streams who learnt coding purely to find employment in coding, debugging and maintenance. These jobs can now be done with 99 per cent accuracy with tools like Gilt-Hub Copilot and ChatGPT. Several thousands can be replaced with tools and just a project manager. Data analytics face a similar fate: AI-platforms such as DataRobot and AutoML can analyse massive datasets and generate insights faster than humans. Add to this predictive analytics and machine learning which will eliminate human intervention altogether.

India’s BPO sector, once considered an economic backbone, is facing an existential crisis. Chatbots, virtual assistants, automated call-centres are all replacing thousands of workers engaged in customer support, legal and financial data processing and medical transcription. Platforms like Casetext and ROSS Intelligence can scan and analyse legal documents faster and better. Likewise, IBM Watson can replace medical transcription jobs. Reportedly, both HCL and Infosys are already taking steps to face this eventuality.

Another sector that is getting disrupted totally is the travel industry. Millions are employed as travel agents in both organises and unorganised sectors. Platforms like Bard, Expedia’s AI concierge, and numerous other AI agents will totally eliminate the need for humans to do customised travel planning, real-time cost comparison and even customer service in multiple languages — without human involvement.

AI-powered content creation tools such as Jasper, ChatGPT, and Writesonic are set to replace human writers, editors and even journalists, which will structurally change the media industry and make lakhs unemployed. AI agents will analyse vast news reports and produce summaries apt for publishing in seconds — why employ humans then?

India’s BFSI sector employs several millions and AI-driven financial advisory services, robo-advisors and automated trading algorithms will soon replace many of them. Platforms like Zerodha, Upstox, and ET Money are just the beginners, creating smaller ripples in reducing human intervention on investment decisions. AI agents can do risk assessment, portfolio management, and many other services that have been traditionally undertaken by humans. Stockbrokers, investment bankers and insurance underwriters may all say bye to their jobs soon.

Consider also another large-scale employment sector like retail and e-commerce. Jobs in supply chain, inventory management, and customer service will be at high risk of getting eliminated with AI platforms. Chatbots and cashier-less stores will eliminate traditional retail jobs instantaneously. Amazon and Flipkart are increasingly reducing staff with use of AI in order fulfilment, customer queries and delivery tracking.

Time to act

By 2030, more than 20 million jobs will be eliminated in a few sectors as above with the current pace of automation. AI-powered decision systems, as they proliferate, will attack even mid-tier jobs. India will face an estimated 5 per cent reduction in GDP due to job losses alone, not to mention lower consumer spending, wider income disparities, delayed economic transition and drop in domestic and global investments.

When the current efforts to reduce unemployment are not showing much results, the AI-induced impact looks scary. The government must take proactive steps to avert a full-blown crisis even as it blindly promotes AI. Remember Amara’s Law, which states that the short-term effects of technology are exaggerated while the long-term ramifications are grossly miscalculated.

Here are a few guidelines for the policymakers to act on quickly, and with a long-term strategic outlook:

AI-resistant skill development: Go beyond traditional degrees that produce graduates for already shrinking jobs. Overhaul the education system to focus on innovation, creativity, critical thinking, and problem-solving skills. Advanced robotics, AI safety and ethics, design thinking, etc., are AI-resistant fields.

AI regulation and ethical implementation: Expedite policy frameworks to regulate AI implementation in industries vulnerable to mass job loss. AI deployment should be encouraged only when it complements human employees; not replacement. AI must be to aid human work.

AI-driven entrepreneurship: Encourage entrepreneurship in AI-powered industries by fine-tuning policies to support start-ups that leverage AI for job creation. Government-funded AI incubators can support innovation in fields that demand human creativity and intuition.

Universal basic income guarantee: This won’t create the la-la land envisioned by the policymaker but will act as a safety net when the inevitable large-scale job losses occur.

Reskilling and reintegration: Take reskilling as an urgent national priority. Roll out expansive workforce training in PPP mode focussed on AI governance, human-AI collaboration, and emerging tech. Be prepared for the new employment paradigm.

Pretending that AI will spare our jobs is sheer folly, as we are already at the precipice of a massive employment crisis. Policymakers seem to enjoy the allure of AI-powered progress, oblivious to Maslow, or Amara. Will the government act now to avert an economic catastrophe or repeat the rhetoric of AI-skilling institutes in 2030 when most jobs vanish? Act now, else the dystopian prophecy of a nation living off subsidies while a few elites control the economy will no longer be satire.

The writer is a Fortune-500 advisor, start-up investor and co-founder of the non-profit Medici Institute for Innovation